Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context

AUTHORS

Sheppard RJ , Watson OJ , Pieciak R , Lungu J , Kwenda G , Moyo C , Chanda SL , Barnsley G , Brazeau NF , Gerard-Ursin ICG , Olivera Mesa D , Whittaker C , Gregson S , Okell LC , Ghani AC , MacLeod WB , Del Fava E , Melegaro A , Hines JZ , Mulenga LB , Walker PGT , Mwananyanda L , Gill CJ , . Nature communications. 2023 6 29; 14(1). 3840

PMID: 37380650 [PubMed].

ABSTRACT

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.

Tags: 2023 Alumni Publications